Development and validation of clinical prediction model to estimate the probability of death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: Insights from a nationwide database.

In the current study, we aimed to develop and validate a model, based on our nationwide centralized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) database for predicting death. We conducted an observational study (CORONATION-TR registry). All patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Turkey between March 11 and June 22, 2020 were included. We developed the model and validated both temporal and geographical models. Model performances were assessed by area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC or c-index), R2 , and calibration plots. The study population comprised a total of 60,980 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Of these patients, 7688 (13%) were transferred to intensive care unit, 4867 patients (8.0%) required mechanical ventilation, and 2682 patients (4.0%) died. Advanced age, increased levels of lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, creatinine, albumine, and D-dimer levels, and pneumonia on computed tomography, diabetes mellitus, and heart failure status at admission were found to be the strongest predictors of death at 30 days in the multivariable logistic regression model (area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic = 0.942; 95% confidence interval: 0.939-0.945; R2 = .457). There were also favorable temporal and geographic validations. We developed and validated the prediction model to identify in-hospital deaths in all hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Our model achieved reasonable performances in both temporal and geographic validations.

The prognostic role of cardiac troponin in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Myocardial injury defined by elevation of cardiac troponins (cTn) in the course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been reported, though not fully characterized yet. Using the Turkish nationwide centralized COVID-19 database, we sought to determine whether cTn measured within 24 h of admission may help identify 30-day all-cause mortality in hospitalized patients. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted at all hospitals in Turkey between March 11, 2020, and June 22, 2020. All hospitalized COVID-19 patients (≥18 years) who had cTn measurements within 24 h of admission were included. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 14,855 COVID-19 patients (median age 49 years and 54% male) from 81 provinces of Turkey were included. Of these, 2020 patients (13.6%) were transferred to intensive care unit, 1165 patients (7.8%) needed mechanical ventilation, and 882 patients (5.9%) died during hospitalization. The prevalence of cTn positivity was 6.9% (n = 1027) in the hospitalized patients. cTn positivity was 5% in those patients alive at 30-day, and 44% in those who died. In multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model, age, lactate dehydrogenase, and cTn were the strongest predictors of 30-day mortality, irrespective of cTn definition as a continuous, ordinal variable, or dichotomic variables. CONCLUSIONS: A single measurement of cTn at admission in patients with COVID-19 is associated with 30-day all-cause mortality and may have an important prognostic role for optimizing risk stratification.

Cover Image, Volume 93, Number 5, May 2021

The cover image is based on the Research Article Development and validation of clinical prediction model to estimate the probability of death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: Insights from a nationwide database by Ibrahim Halil Tanbo?a et al., https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.26844.

The role of Frailty on Adverse Outcomes Among Older Patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis and screening of frailty, a condition characterized by an increased vulnerability to adverse outcomes of COVID-19, has emerged as an essential clinical tool which is strongly recommended by healthcare providers concerned with hospitalized elderly population. The data showing the role of frailty in patients infected with COVID-19 is needed. METHODS: This was a nationwide cohort study conducted at all hospitals in Turkey. All COVID-19 hospitalized patients (≥ 65 years) were included. Patients who were alive and not discharged up to July 20, 2020, were excluded. The frailty was assessed by using the "Hospital Frailty Risk Score" (HFRS). Patients were classified into three risk groups of frailty based on previously validated cut points as low (<5 points), intermediate (5-15 points), and high (>15 points). Additionally, patients who had the HFRS of ≥5 were defined as frail. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality rates by frailty group. RESULTS: Between March 11, 2020, and June 22, 2020, a total of 18,234 COVID-19 patients from all of 81 provinces of Turkey were included. Totally, 12,295 (67.4%) patients were defined as frail (HFRS of >5) of which 2,801 (15.4%) patients were categorized in the highest level of frailty (HFRS of >15). Observed in-hospital mortality rates were 697 (12.0%), 1,751 (18.2%) and 867 (31.0%) in low, intermediate and high hospital frailty risk, respectively (p<0.001). Compared with low HFRS (<5), the adjusted odds ratios for in-hospital mortality were 1.482 (1.334-1.646) for intermediate HFRS (5-15) and 2.084; 95% CI, 1.799-2.413 for high HFRS (>15). CONCLUSIONS: As a claims-based frailty model, the HFRS provides clinicians and health systems, a standardized tool for an effective detection and grading of frailty in patients in COVID-19. A frailty-based tailored management of the older population may provide a more accurate risk categorization for both therapeutic and preventive strategies.